Baltimore - Less Deadly, Still Dangerous

So now that Baltimore has closed out it's least-deadly year in a couple decades, it's time to reflect on what it means.  I'll spare you most of the details, they've been pretty well reported by the The Sun and the AP.  2008 saw only 234 murders in Baltimore City, which is a considerable improvement from 2007 (282) and the lowest tally since the 1980's.  However, in the same breath we should mention that shootings and other violent crime are not down and property crime has slightly increased.  However, it's a new year, why not focus on the bright side?  (Because 2009's murder #1 occurred less than an hour into 2009?)

I think there is also a little further cause to view the 234 number a little optimistically.  In that number there are 6 deaths that occurred in 2008 but were due to wounds that occurred in a previous year.  Yes, that's consistent to how things have been counted in the past, but 6 is a pretty anomaly.  The fact that there were only 228 events that resulted in a death in 2008 makes me a little hopeful.  We're still the third deadliest city in the US (behind St. Louis and Detroit, but not by much), but progress is progress.

Anyway, it certainly sounds like Bealefield (Baltimore City Police Commissioner) is doing a pretty good job.  His programs to curb violent crime started in fall 2007 and if everyone remembers, we were on track for 300 murders in '07 until they started to tail off in the fall.  November and December 2008 were particularly bad, but it sort seems like they might be able to make some progress on this.  Also, you gotta like his style: on New Year's Eve he chased down and apprehended two suspects with sawed-off shotguns!  That's right, he not only goes on patrol, but he was willing to chase a couple guys with guns.

Here's a little chart I've made that shows how murders progressed during the year.  I think I'll probably update it once in awhile when I'm curious as to how we're doing against last year's numbers.

(Source for Data:  Baltimore Crime Blog)

As you can see from that chart, June, November, and December were all really bad months for murders in this city.  I just made this chart in Google Documents (yes, I'm too cheap for Excel at home), but I think that in the future I'll pretty it up a little.  It'd sure be nice to see the 2009 line underneath the 2008 one.

Also, I think a really interesting chart that I want to make is "Trailing Twelve Months Murders" which ought to reflect any changes to the murder rate more effectively.  However, since I only have enough initiative to get data as far back as Jan 1, 2008, that chart will have to wait until later.

You know, another thing that you shouldn't discount:  2008 was a leap year.  At our current murder rate, you'd expect ~1 extra murder in a leap year.