Baltimore Murder Charts - Year End 2010 Edition

I haven't been the best at updating my blog recently, but one of the few original things I post regularly are charts covering Baltimore murders. My sources remain Murder Ink from the City Paper and the Baltimore Crime blog.

Murder trends for 2010 were not nearly as exciting as 2009. Murders declined again, but not by a large number. Most of 2010 looked like 2009, the main exception being that there were far fewer deaths classified as homicides due to prior year murders. As I've been doing, any homicides classified due to an act in a prior year are counted in that prior year (by going back and editing data). So using this methodology I get slightly different numbers than the official tally, but I think it's better for tracking trends.

In 2009 there were officially 238 murders in Baltimore, but 14 of them were due to acts of violence from prior years, so I count that as 224 murders. In 2010 there were officially 223 murders in Baltimore, but 4 of them were due to acts of violence in prior years (none of them from 2009 though, so no upward modification). So while the official numbers drop from 238 to 223 (a 6.3% decrease), my count drops from 224 to 219 (a 2.2% decrease).

Still, we've come a long way since 2007. The 2010 total is down 20% from 2007. The improvements are pretty obvious when you look at the homicides by month and the cumulative plot of homicides for the last four years.



In fact, 2007 was such a higher total than 2008-10, it's actually better to remove it to compare the more recent years.


So what do we have? Looks mostly like stability. Sure, from 2008 to 2010 there were about 14 fewer homicides in Baltimore, a total of a 6% decrease. Not terribly impressive, even if murders continue decreasing at this rate we'll have to wait until 2017 to see murders become something that happens only every other day. That's not a terribly cheerful prediction. Hopefully the continued focus on reducing illegal guns in the city will continue to lower shootings and homicide rate will drop faster.

It needs to. Baltimore's per capita murder rate remains one of the worst in the country. At 35 per 100,000 (my math based on 223 official murders and U.S. Census estimated population for 2009). However, if you are African-American in Baltimore the per-capita murder rate is unbelievable. According to Anna Ditkoff of Murder Ink, 90.6% of 2010's murder victims were African-American. Based on Baltimore's demographics, this indicates that African-Americans in Baltimore face a 50 per 100,000 per capita murder rate while residents of other races experience a 9 per 100,000 per capita murder rate. To put that in perspective, residents who are not African-American are safer in Baltimore than the average Albuquerque resident (source: Wikipedia article on crime in US cities).

Finally, my favorite chart that I create for tracking murder trends:


Vertical axis magnified:

Links to previous year's homicide summaries:
2009 Year End Summary
2008 Year End Summary

Baltimore - Less Deadly, Still Dangerous

So now that Baltimore has closed out it's least-deadly year in a couple decades, it's time to reflect on what it means.  I'll spare you most of the details, they've been pretty well reported by the The Sun and the AP.  2008 saw only 234 murders in Baltimore City, which is a considerable improvement from 2007 (282) and the lowest tally since the 1980's.  However, in the same breath we should mention that shootings and other violent crime are not down and property crime has slightly increased.  However, it's a new year, why not focus on the bright side?  (Because 2009's murder #1 occurred less than an hour into 2009?)

I think there is also a little further cause to view the 234 number a little optimistically.  In that number there are 6 deaths that occurred in 2008 but were due to wounds that occurred in a previous year.  Yes, that's consistent to how things have been counted in the past, but 6 is a pretty anomaly.  The fact that there were only 228 events that resulted in a death in 2008 makes me a little hopeful.  We're still the third deadliest city in the US (behind St. Louis and Detroit, but not by much), but progress is progress.

Anyway, it certainly sounds like Bealefield (Baltimore City Police Commissioner) is doing a pretty good job.  His programs to curb violent crime started in fall 2007 and if everyone remembers, we were on track for 300 murders in '07 until they started to tail off in the fall.  November and December 2008 were particularly bad, but it sort seems like they might be able to make some progress on this.  Also, you gotta like his style: on New Year's Eve he chased down and apprehended two suspects with sawed-off shotguns!  That's right, he not only goes on patrol, but he was willing to chase a couple guys with guns.

Here's a little chart I've made that shows how murders progressed during the year.  I think I'll probably update it once in awhile when I'm curious as to how we're doing against last year's numbers.

(Source for Data:  Baltimore Crime Blog)

As you can see from that chart, June, November, and December were all really bad months for murders in this city.  I just made this chart in Google Documents (yes, I'm too cheap for Excel at home), but I think that in the future I'll pretty it up a little.  It'd sure be nice to see the 2009 line underneath the 2008 one.

Also, I think a really interesting chart that I want to make is "Trailing Twelve Months Murders" which ought to reflect any changes to the murder rate more effectively.  However, since I only have enough initiative to get data as far back as Jan 1, 2008, that chart will have to wait until later.

You know, another thing that you shouldn't discount:  2008 was a leap year.  At our current murder rate, you'd expect ~1 extra murder in a leap year.

What is a crime worth reporting?

The Baltimore Sun has a pretty good op-ed explanation on when a crime is considered "serious" enough to be reported by the BPD.  The example they use is the "discharge of a firearm" that occurred recently in Canton but won't show up on any of their crime reports because no one was hit with a bullet.

I agree with the columnist, why can't the BPD publish a map that is updated every 24 hours that has a short blurb about each incident that has occurred, even things as small as property crime and firearm discharging.  It's not a huge technological hurdle and everyone knows that they are tracking this data.  Why not make it public information?

It's like being a vigilante, but with fewer bloodstains to wash out of your clothing

I've just been made aware of something called Baltimore John Watch and I think it's a great idea.  I'm personally pretty impressed that some people are willing to put themselves out there and identify the johns picking up prostitutes in their neighborhood.  It seems to be quite controversial (apparently the johns hate it, the prostitutes aren't big fans, the drug dealers hate it because the prostitutes have less money, and people who live nearby hate it because it's just causing the prostitutes to relocate).  In my opinion, it's great that someone is posting the license plate numbers and descriptions of people picking up known prostitutes while children are playing nearby.  I don't have a whole lot of pity for men paying $20 for a blow job from an addicted, diseased hooker.  More services for the prostitute themselves would be ideal, but it seems to me that compassion for the prostitutes and hate for the johns are not mutually exclusive.

Mount Vernon not Tacky Enough? Call MICA!

It's an unfortunate fact that, under normal circumstances, not a day goes by that I don't hear someone remark "I hate that Mount Vernon neighborhood, especially around the Washington Monument, it's just too pleasant!"

Thankfully, MICA has offered us a temporary reprieve from not only the beauty of the Mount Vernon Place but also from the unbearable usefulness of cutting through the park to cross the street!  That's right from March 16 through March 29, project Golden Chain Link Fence is on!

Why would MICA surround the parks around the Washington Monument in cheap chain link fence that they spray painted gold?  For an answer to that, you're going to have to go to http://www.goldchainlinkfence.com, or just continue reading.

The website claims that this fence is "temporarily shifting the way the space is seen and used."  This is absolutely true:

There's only one way into the fenced-in area!  

Also, notice their motto: "An Opportunity to Experience Mount Vernon Place from an Alternative Perspective."  I have two problems with this:

1. That's not a sentence!
2. Instead of "Alternative," I would suggest the words "Ugly," "Godawful," or "Tacky."

-----

I mean, can you imagine the brainstorming session for this art installation?

"We need to do something public!  Something people will notice!"

"We need art in a public places!"

"Hey, what about experiential art?  Something that ordinary people take part in!"

"But how can we do it on our budget?  How will be get people to notice?"

"What if we put something in there way?  Like they have to walk around it?"

"A statue!"

"No!  People are used to walking around things place on pedestals!  We need something that changes the city landscape!"

"Let's close a street!"

"Let's block an intersection!"

"What if we parallel park really poorly so that there's less parking around?"

"Bad parking...how will people notice?"

"We could paint the cars gold!"

"What if we get towed?"

"Let's tear up a sidewalk for unnecessary construction!"

"How will people know it's unnecessary?"

"We could paint it gold!"

"Aren't jackhammers expensive though?"

"Jackhammers are way too phallic anyway!"

"Wait!  I've got it!  We could put up a fence!"

"Where?"

"I don't know, like around some space!  Like it'll totally change the way people use that space!"

"Yeah... I get it!  I mean, normally it's open space, but now it's fenced off!"

"It'll change everyone's understanding of the space!"

"But how will anyone know that it's fenced off to change their understanding and not just because the grass has been reseeded?"

"We could paint it gold!"

-----

What I don't understand is how they sold this dumb-ass plan to the city.  "We can spread goodwill too by using the fence to create messages!"

Styrofoam cups in the fence to spell a word?  Really?  That's the best you can do?  Don't you go to an art school?  This is your plan for life?  You're going to make art that's good enough to be sold for enough money to feed you?  I mean, I know it's an art school, but isn't there someone there who has the job of saying "Hey, I know you mean well and you really want this to work out, but you just don't have any good ideas.  Perhaps you ought to go over to ComputerTraining.com and take their Online Skills Challenge, I hear that Microsoft Certification can guarantee you a good career in IT management."

They probably sold this to the city by not actually letting on how fucking ugly their fences would really be.  Instead, they probably just showed them pictures of the art installation that don't completely suck.  There are some installed pieces that are actually a little cool, so it's not completely a waste.

Plus, as I just learned this evening, they're tearing down the fence tomorrow.  I was up there over the weekend, when it was as ugly as it could be, but by this weekend you'll apparently be free to walk around Mount Vernon Place again.

Nonetheless, it was a dumb, dumb, dumb idea.  "Visitors are encouraged and possibly even forced to 're-see' and 're-consider' Mount Vernon Place from an alternate perspective." Seriously - just because you can make it sound pretentious doesn't mean it's art.

Good While it Lasted

Well folks, it was good while it lasted. From September 28th through October 5th, no one was murdered in Baltimore. That's right, for the first time in two years the city went a full week without a homicide. That ended on Friday night, as homicide number 232 was logged on Eutaw Place.

So, based on the latest information, 234 murders (as of 10/7) in 291 days is 0.8 murders/day (or 4 murders every 5 days). But from that point on, there are only 76 days left in the year, which puts us on pace for 293 to 294 murders. Sadly, that's good news, as Baltimore was widely predicted to reach 300 murders this year.

The acting police commissioner and the mayor have been jumping all over the lull in the violence (see video from WJZ story), claiming that their new policies are having an effect. Personally, I'll believe it when I see it. Actually, I lead a very charmed life for Baltimore, so I don't really see it. There's been 1 murder in my neighborhood (researched using this website) in the last two years and that was on the other side of the neighborhood at that. There are blocks in Baltimore with multiple homicides this year!

When you look at that Sun article, the most amazing thing is the list of murder-free streaks for 2006 and 2007. Twice we've gone six days, and 8 times we've gone five days. That's it, in the last 21 months, 630+ days, there have been only 11 periods of five or more days without a murder. I can't imagine what it's like living in the rougher neighborhoods of this city, imagine the stress of knowing that a shooting could take place any minute. How much longer can people live like that? What's the next step?

A Drug Deal

So I just witnessed my first drug deal. You might think it's funny to have lived in Baltimore for nearly 7 years and have never seen a complete drug transaction, but that was me until tonight. It's like living in Hawaii but never seeing the beach...you're surrounded by it, how could you miss it?

You might ask why I'm still awake at nearly 3 AM. Well, I had a few drinks and was reminded of a website I had stumbled upon earlier - tuckermax.com. Being that I'm drunk and the guy has some interesting stories (which I'm willing to believe are at least 50% true, the world is a terrible place), I kept reading stories. They're like car crashes, you can't look away (especially if you're drunk).

Anyway, I was about to get some sleep when I heard some voices out my window (it's hot, I'm cheap, no air conditioning yet). Peering through my blinds I see three men across the street. A skinny white guy, a kind of balding white guy and a black guy with kind of an afro. Every time a car would pass (like every 15 seconds for a bit), they would stop talking and pretend to be doing anything but transacting business (seriously, like inspecting the gutter or admiring a tree). Eventually they transacted their bullshit and all parted ways. It seemed like the drugs must have been hidden under the parked car across the street (as the black guy disappeared behind the car for a few seconds after giving the skinny white guy something).

The thing that brings this all home is that my car is parked across the street too. For all I know those fuckers are hiding drugs under my fender as well.

I love this city a lot of times. I've had some really great times here, I've got some good friends, and it's a nice, relaxed kind of place compared to like DC or NYC. But I can't stand the crime.

Does it make me a horrible person to really hate the corner boys? I mean, not just in the "I wish that they weren't around my neighborhood" kind of way but in the "I would personally be pleased if harm were to befall them." I know that it's wrong to feel that way, but they're actively working to make the world a worse place. I suppose it's some sort of primeval instinct for a man to protect his home, because as I watched that drug deal, I just wanted to beat the shit out of all the participants. All the times I've been worried about walking alone at night, all the times I've had to walk my female friends home or to their cars, for every time I've had a friend get their car broken into, I could finally see an undeniably deserving target for my anger. If only I could take a baseball bat to those assholes for what they do to the neighborhood.

But I won't. Because I don't own a baseball bat or because there are three of them and one of me. Or really because I abide by laws. Because I want to believe that I'm different from them and the only way to do that is to not sink to their level of senseless violence.

Fuck them, they're all assholes, I'm going to sleep.

Degenerate Dirtbags Strike!

So here's another story of Baltimore ruining your best attempts to be an upbeat human:

This morning was starting off well, until I got to my car. I must have left a door unlocked, because someone had gotten into the car without breaking a window. They took many things of value (or seemingly of value), here's a quick rundown:

• XM Satellite Radio Receiver (worthless to them, it has a unique ID and can never be reactivated by anyone but me)
• Bluetooth Hands-Free Set (cost to me, ~$80)
  
• A bunch of CD's (I have all the music on my computer, so I can burn replacements)
• My backpack (annoying, but it's a few years old)
• 3 12-packs of soda, about 18 loose cans of soda, half a box of "Famous Amos" cookies, and a bunch of single serving potato chips
• A kitchen knife that I'd left in my car by accident

Paradoxically, they did not steal my car charger for my phone.

It's not really the kind of thing that actually hurts you financially. It's the kind of thing that pisses you off at humanity, or rather the trash that passes for humanity around here. Just some white trash kids from the neighborhood in a crime of opportunity I suspect.

I really feel like I have contributed something to this city by trying to live here as a professional and make it a better place and this is how its residents repay me. It's this sort of thing that makes me think that really, I don't care about improves this city. Sometimes, I just think that maybe these people deserve to live in the filth they've created for themselves.

Surprise!

Well, just to taunt me for last night, in the news today we learn that Baltimore is the 12th most dangerous city in America.

The police commissioner was on the television news saying that they "Know what the problem is and what's driving these statistics and are working to reduce them." Unfortunately, despite the fact that they know what the problems are, they aren't sharing that knowledge with the general public. This comes despite the fact that the police commissioner also stated that the police "Know what they needed to do." A cynical person might be suspicious of these claims without some sort of evidence to back it up.

Fuck Baltimore

Well, I suppose that it was bound to happen sooner or later. I live in Baltimore. I've lived here for almost six years. Tonight I was held up at gunpoint for the first time. Not in my neighborhood, but near an area where I used to live (West Side of Downtown).

It was just past midnight (Sunday night). My roommates and I were leaving a friend's birthday party. We are just reaching the car (parked in front of 701 W. Pratt St.), one guy is opening it up. I see a guy on a bike riding along on the sidewalk. Right as I am opening the door to the car, he pulls up, leans his bike against the wall and starts to reach into his back waistband. As soon as I saw him reaching into his back waistband I was like "Oh fuck, are you serious?" Yeah, it was a gun. Revolver. Small caliber, possibly even .22 caliber. I had my wallet out in a flash. All he wanted was cash, thankfully. I had about $24. My one roommate had about $40. My other roommate was in the car and didn't at first realize what was going on. The guy actually pointed the gun at him and yelled at him to turn the car off. He only had $6 in cash. The guy was pretty pissed about this, but my roommate in the car threw out the wallet, so the guy could see that he wasn't hiding anything. He patted me down (I offered my change and cell phone) and my other roommate who was outside the car. Then he told us to "roll out" and got back on his bike.

It sucks, I've definitely been in that situation a hundred times before and will probably be in it many times more. It's nighttime, there's an African-American man in dark clothing (in this case a hood) approaching (in this case on bicycle). It flashes through your mind "should I be concerned?" and then you think "no, you're being paranoid and maybe racist." Then, this time, he fucking pulls a gun on you and takes your money.

I think that might actually be the last straw for me. Next summer I'm probably moving. It will be time to reevaluate city living versus the suburbs. I have to be honest, I never want this to happen to me again. I absolutely want to do everything in my power to make sure this never happens to my girlfriend or anyone important to me. If I have to move to the suburbs to make that happen, then I suppose it's a small price to pay.

PS - Baltimore Police were very professional about it. Although they did spend a little time, not quite out of ear shot, trying to decide if they could stick this one on another jurisdiction.